WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

WTI crude oil's closing price on 9 June 2026 will reflect global supply dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and demand forecasts at that specific moment. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC, capturing the official close from the New York Mercantile Exchange. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES suggests traders expect the price to remain below the threshold specified in the full market terms, though the blank in the market title indicates the specific strike price has not been disclosed in this summary.

Historical volatility in WTI demonstrates how quickly sentiment shifts around production announcements and inventory data. In 2022, prices swung between $70 and $130 per barrel within months as the Ukraine conflict disrupted supply expectations and recession fears mounted. The 0% probability reflects either a strike price set well above recent trading ranges or a consensus view that near-term supply remains ample. Comparable markets on crude oil have shown that traders typically price in OPEC+ decisions and US inventory reports as primary drivers, with seasonal demand patterns playing a secondary role by early June.

Catalysts through the settlement window include any OPEC+ production adjustments announced before June, US Energy Information Administration weekly inventory releases, and broader macroeconomic data affecting demand forecasts. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East or production disruptions elsewhere could shift expectations sharply. Traders should monitor Bloomberg and Reuters for official EIA data releases and OPEC communications, as these typically move prices within hours of publication.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 9? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.