Iran ceasefire continues through?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The US-Iran truce announced in April remains the core reference point for this market, and the 100% implied probability mostly reflects the absence of any fresh public confirmation of renewed US kinetic action on Iranian soil. The earlier relief rally showed how quickly markets priced the ceasefire as a live stabilising factor: equities bounced, oil fell sharply and regional risk premia eased. Comparable cases in this area have tended to move on concrete military headlines rather than diplomacy alone, so a market at the upper bound is usually read as a bet that no qualifying strike has been reported, not as proof that the wider dispute has been settled.

The main catalyst is whether the truce survives the next set of official and quasi-official checks: statements from Washington, Tehran and intermediaries, plus any credible reporting on activity around the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian military targets. Recent reporting from IG Group and Business Insider has stressed that the arrangement is fragile and dependent on implementation, particularly reopening the strait and avoiding a renewed round of strikes. Traders should watch for any White House, Pentagon or Iranian foreign ministry clarification, since the market’s resolution rule hinges on public confirmation or an overwhelming media consensus within one calendar day of any kinetic action. In practice, the lean here is on continued non-escalation unless a new airstrike, missile exchange or other confirmed attack changes the factual record.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Iran ceasefire continues through? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.