United States vs. Paraguay

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States men's national football team will face Paraguay in a group-stage match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 12 June 2026. The current market probability of 28% for a US victory reflects moderate confidence in the Americans, with the remaining probability distributed between a draw and a Paraguayan win. This valuation sits notably below the historical win rate for the USMNT against Paraguay: across competitive and friendly fixtures since 1995, the US has won approximately 60% of direct encounters, with Paraguay claiming roughly 20% and the remainder ending level. The disparity between historical performance and current market pricing suggests traders are weighting recent form, squad composition at tournament time, and group-stage dynamics more heavily than the long-term head-to-head record.

The market's lean towards lower US probability appears anchored to uncertainty around squad readiness and group composition rather than any single catalyst. Paraguay qualified for the 2026 tournament through CONMEBOL qualifying, finishing fifth in the final standings, whilst the US secured automatic qualification as co-host. Pre-tournament friendlies and squad announcements from both federations—typically released in May 2026—will provide concrete data on injury status and tactical preparation. Traders should monitor official FIFA fixture confirmations and any late withdrawals or suspensions that could alter team strength. The settlement window closes shortly after full-time, leaving minimal time for post-match clarification disputes.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for United States vs. Paraguay plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.