Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians face the Philadelphia Phillies on 24 May in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture scheduled for 1:35PM ET. The current crowd-implied probability of 46% for a Guardians victory reflects modest confidence in the visiting team, despite Cleveland's stronger recent divisional performance. This probability sits below the historical baseline for road teams in comparable matchups, suggesting the market is pricing in Philadelphia's home-field advantage and recent form.

The Phillies enter May as defending National League East leaders with a roster centred on established offensive contributors, whilst the Guardians have built their 2024 campaign around pitching depth and defensive efficiency. Historical records show that afternoon games favour teams with established bullpen depth, a category where Cleveland has invested significantly. The settlement window extends to 31 May, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or scheduling disruptions occur in the intervening week.

Key variables for traders include recent injury reports from both rosters and starting pitcher assignments, which typically drive single-game probability shifts by 3–5 percentage points. Philadelphia's home record in May historically runs 2–3 percentage points above their season average, whilst Cleveland's road performance tends to track closer to their overall win rate. Monitoring official MLB roster updates through 23 May will clarify whether either team faces unexpected absences that could shift the implied probability materially.

Methodology

This page tracks Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.