Claude Mythos released on…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not yet released a model officially named or classified as "Claude Mythos" as of early 2025. The company's current public product line comprises Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus variants, with Opus 4.7 representing the latest flagship release. The market assigns zero probability to Mythos becoming available before the settlement window closes on 30 June 2026, reflecting the absence of any public roadmap, announcement, or credible reporting suggesting such a release within that timeframe.

Anthropic's naming conventions have remained consistent since the company's founding, with model tiers following the Haiku–Sonnet–Opus hierarchy introduced in 2023. A departure to a "Mythos" designation would represent a significant strategic shift in product nomenclature, comparable to how competitors have occasionally introduced entirely new model families (such as OpenAI's o1 reasoning models in late 2024). Historical precedent suggests major model releases from Anthropic receive advance notice through developer documentation, blog posts, or investor communications rather than surprise launches. The company typically spaces major releases by several months, with Opus 4.7 arriving in late 2024 following Opus 4 in November 2023.

Traders monitoring this market should watch for announcements during Anthropic's scheduled product updates, statements from leadership at industry conferences, or filings related to the company's anticipated initial public offering—itself a dependency for visibility into long-term product strategy. Recent reporting from The Information and similar outlets has focused on Anthropic's funding rounds and competitive positioning rather than imminent model releases under new naming schemes. The zero probability reflects rational scepticism absent concrete signals of a Mythos-class product in development.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Claude Mythos released on…? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.