Bitcoin above ___ on May 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market concerns Bitcoin's price at noon Eastern Time on 13 May 2026, specifically the closing price of the one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that Bitcoin will trade above the specified threshold at that precise moment, a notably confident positioning given the two-year settlement window and inherent volatility in intraday price movements.

Historical precedent suggests such extreme confidence in specific price thresholds at distant future dates typically reflects either an exceptionally high price target or a threshold set well below prevailing market expectations. Bitcoin's volatility—demonstrated through its 2024 movements between roughly $16,500 and $73,700—means even modest percentage-point thresholds can carry meaningful uncertainty over multi-year horizons. Previous markets on similar intraday price points have shown that crowd confidence often recalibrates substantially as settlement approaches, particularly when macroeconomic conditions shift or regulatory developments alter the investment landscape.

Traders monitoring this position should track Federal Reserve policy announcements, which typically influence broader risk asset sentiment and cryptocurrency valuations. Regulatory developments from the SEC, CFTC, or international bodies could materially affect Bitcoin's trajectory. Additionally, major institutional adoption announcements or significant shifts in corporate treasury allocation towards Bitcoin would serve as meaningful catalysts. The specific noon ET timestamp introduces additional granularity; intraday price action can diverge substantially from daily closes, meaning traders should also monitor trading volume patterns and any scheduled economic data releases timed around that window.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Bitcoin above ___ on May 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.