Bitcoin above ___ on May 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's price at precisely 12:00 noon ET on 10 May 2026, using the one-minute candle close on Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The settlement window extends to 16:00 ET that day, allowing for any necessary verification against Binance's official data. The specific price threshold determining resolution has not been disclosed in the market title, though the 0% implied probability suggests the threshold is set substantially above current Bitcoin valuations or represents an extreme price movement scenario.

Historical Bitcoin volatility provides context for assessing single-point-in-time price predictions. Bitcoin has experienced multiple instances of 20–30% daily swings during periods of macroeconomic stress or regulatory announcements, though such moves remain relatively rare. The May 2026 timeframe sits approximately 18 months forward, spanning multiple Federal Reserve policy cycles and potential cryptocurrency regulatory developments. Comparable markets resolving on specific price levels at defined timestamps have typically attracted low probabilities when thresholds diverge significantly from prevailing spot prices or when no immediate catalyst justifies extreme movement.

Traders monitoring this market should track scheduled economic announcements affecting risk appetite, including US inflation data releases and Federal Reserve communications that influence broader asset correlations. Cryptocurrency-specific catalysts include regulatory statements from the SEC or international bodies, major exchange developments, and macroeconomic shifts affecting Bitcoin's correlation with traditional equities. The specificity of the noon ET timestamp means that intraday volatility patterns and regional market opening hours become relevant factors, particularly given Binance operates on UTC timings.

Methodology

This page tracks Bitcoin above ___ on May 10? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.