Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MOUZ and Yellow Submarine are due to meet in the Europe Closed Qualifier playoffs for The International in a best-of-three, with the market currently implying an overwhelming lean to MOUZ despite the 0% YES price. That kind of reading is usually more about expectation of a straightforward favourite than certainty of the result: in this pairing, recent head-to-head data cut both ways, with Yellow Submarine beating MOUZ 2-1 in May 2026[1][2][4], while MOUZ also took a 2-0 series from the same opponent in October 2025[8].

For traders, the main catalyst is whether the scheduled bracket match actually starts and is completed on time, because playoff Dota markets can reset quickly if the bracket is altered or a series is postponed. Match listings from multiple esports trackers place the start around 08:00 UTC on 22 June 2026, which makes the immediate watchlist the official tournament bracket, any updated start-time notice, and whether the series is played as a normal upper-bracket round rather than moved by the organiser[2][3][5]. Recent match pages also show this is a live, recurring matchup rather than a one-off outlier, which is why the market is likely leaning on bracket position and current form rather than a single past result[2][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.