Market statistics
- Total volume
- $834K
- 24h volume
- $834K
- Liquidity
- $4.7M
- Open interest
- $232K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (62)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
Vici Gaming and Virtus.pro are scheduled to face off in a best-of-three Dota 2 match within DreamLeague's Group A stage on 14 May at 09:30 ET. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in one outcome or minimal trading activity on this particular fixture. DreamLeague remains one of the premier annual Dota 2 tournaments, drawing top-tier rosters from across Europe and Asia-Pacific regions.
Historically, Vici Gaming has maintained stronger recent form in international competition, consistently qualifying for major tournament main stages and demonstrating resilience in group-stage formats. Virtus.pro, whilst a storied European organisation, has faced roster instability and variable performance in 2024–2025 season matchups against top-tier Chinese and Southeast Asian teams. Head-to-head records between these squads show Vici with a marginal advantage in recent encounters, though individual tournament contexts significantly influence outcomes.
Traders should monitor team roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions announced before the 09:30 ET start time, as both organisations have occasionally fielded adjusted lineups for regional qualifiers. Patch updates to Dota 2 released in the days preceding the match could shift hero viability and strategic priorities. The settlement window closes at 19:50 UTC on 14 May, allowing approximately ten hours for the match to conclude; delays beyond seven days from the scheduled date trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent DreamLeague coverage via esports news outlets should clarify any fixture postponements or format changes affecting Group A scheduling.
Wikipedia Context
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Dota 2Dota 2 is a 2013 multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) video game by Valve. The game is a sequel to Defense of the Ancients (DotA), a community-created mod for Blizzard Entertainment's Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos. Dota 2 is played in matches between two teams of five players, with each team occupying and defending their own separate base on the map. Each o
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Don VicicDonald Joseph Vicic is an American former professional football player who played for the BC Lions. He won the Grey Cup with them in 1964. He played college football at Ohio State University. He was later an investment advisor and founded Brown & Vicic Limited. He is currently a vice-president and consultant to RBC Dominion Securities.
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DotarizineDotarizine is a drug used in the treatment of migraine, which acts as a calcium channel blocker, and also as an antagonist at the 5HT2A receptor, and to a lesser extent at the 5HT1A and 5HT2C receptors. The anti-migraine action is thought to be due to its action as a vasodilator, but it also has some anxiolytic effects and blocks amnesia produced by electroc
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DoravirineDoravirine, sold under the brand name Pifeltro, is a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor medication developed by Merck & Co. for use in the treatment of HIV/AIDS.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2earth. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
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