Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 34.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 34.5 in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Hanwha Life Esports and BNK FEARX are due to meet in an LCK best-of-three, with the market effectively pricing a Hanwha Life win as near-certain. That is consistent with the teams’ recent head-to-head record: Hanwha Life beat BNK FearX 2-1 in their Round 1 meeting on 10 May 2026, and also swept the same opponent 2-0 in an LCK match in April 2025, according to recent match reports and score listings. A 100% crowd-implied probability reflects how one-sided the matchup has been in prior series, but it leaves little room for the usual volatility of a Bo3, where a single draft swing or early game throw can still change the series shape.
The main catalyst to watch is whether the scheduled match starts and is completed on time, because a non-start, abandonment or delay beyond seven days would push the market to 50-50 under the rules. With the settlement window ending at 14:00 UTC, any late change to the LCK fixture list, venue operations or broadcast schedule matters more than usual. Recent match pages from Inven Global and GosuGamers point to Hanwha Life’s stronger form in this pairing, while the live fixture listing on Sheep Esports shows the matchup on the calendar; absent an administrative issue, the market is leaning entirely on Hanwha Life’s established edge rather than on any fresh external development.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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