LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Maryville University and Conviction are due to meet in the North American Challengers League playoffs in a best-of-three upper-bracket quarter-final, with the market currently set at 0% for a Maryville win. That implies traders are treating the fixture as either unplayed or unresolved, rather than pricing a side. In comparable NACL playoff match-ups, the decisive factors have usually been confirmation of the actual bracket state, team line-ups and whether a series has already been completed or postponed, rather than historical head-to-head alone. Maryville’s prior series record in the league has been strong enough to make them a live contender in normal circumstances, but the market is not reflecting that on current information.

The key catalyst is whether this scheduled playoff series is in fact played and completed before the settlement window closes, since the rules send the market to 50-50 if the match is cancelled, never played, or drifts beyond the deadline without a winner. Sofascore lists the contest as starting on 20 May 2026 at 23:00 UTC, while Liquipedia places NACL Spring 2026 within the March-to-June playoff window, so the immediate watchpoint is official bracket confirmation and any Riot or organiser update on rescheduling. If a result is posted by the coverage sources, that should settle the market cleanly; if not, the no-result clause becomes the main risk.

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.