LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

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Market context

The North American Challengers League playoffs will feature Supernova against Conviction in an upper bracket semifinal best-of-three match scheduled for 22 May at 7:00 PM ET. The current 0% implied probability for a Supernova victory suggests either exceptional confidence in Conviction's superiority or minimal trading activity establishing a floor price. The settlement window extends to 23 May at 04:00 UTC, allowing roughly 21 hours post-scheduled start time for match completion and resolution.

Historical precedent in Challengers League playoffs shows that seeding and regular-season performance correlate strongly with postseason outcomes, though upset potential remains material given the developmental nature of the competition. Teams that secured higher seeds typically advance at rates exceeding 70% in comparable formats. Without recent head-to-head records or current roster information publicly available, the extreme probability skew likely reflects either established dominance by Conviction in recent fixtures or information asymmetry among market participants.

Traders should monitor official League Championship Series communications and Challengers League scheduling updates for any postponements or cancellations, which would trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause. Match-day variables including technical issues, player availability, or format deviations could affect completion. The tight settlement window means delays beyond 29 May would force resolution to 50-50 regardless of competitive outcome, creating tail-risk exposure for positions held through the scheduled date.

Methodology

This page tracks LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.