LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

TLN Pirates are due to face Karmine Corp Blue in an LFL play-off best-of-three, with the match listed for 20 May and the settlement window running to 22:00 UTC the same day. The crowd-implied 0% yes price leaves the contract effectively unpriced, which is unusual for a live play-off fixture and suggests either stale market data or that traders have not yet engaged with the updated schedule. For comparison, the two sides were also matched in the regular season, where TLN Pirates beat Karmine Corp Blue 1–0 according to Sheep Esports, giving the underdog a recent head-to-head result to anchor any baseline view.

The main catalyst is whether the series actually starts within the settlement window and, if so, whether the event completes cleanly before any schedule slippage. Sheep Esports currently lists the same pairing as an upcoming Bo3 in the play-offs, while Sofascore and Flashscore both carry match pages for 20 May, which supports the view that the fixture is still live on the calendar. Traders should watch for final Riot or league broadcast confirmations on start time, because a delay beyond 7 days would push the market to 50-50 under the rules. If the series is played as scheduled, recent form is likely to matter more than the blank 0% market, with the earlier TLN win the clearest available comparator.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.