Market statistics
- Total volume
- $3.5M
- 24h volume
- $610K
- Liquidity
- $1.0M
- Open interest
- $128K
- Comments
- 2
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (50)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
The Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is scheduled for May 16, 2026. This market will resolve to the country that receives the highest number of points from the professional juries in the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Euro
Wikipedia Context
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Eurovision Song Contest 2026The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is set to be the 70th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. It is scheduled to consist of two semi-finals on 12 and 14 May and a final on 16 May 2026, held at Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna, Austria, and presented by Victoria Swarovski and Michael Ostrowski, with Emily Busvine acting as the green room host. It is being organis
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Eurovision Song Contest 2025The Eurovision Song Contest 2025 was the 69th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. It consisted of two semi-finals on 13 and 15 May and a final on 17 May 2025, held at St. Jakobshalle in Basel, Switzerland, and presented by Hazel Brugger and Sandra Studer, with Michelle Hunziker joining for the final. It was organised by the European Broadcasting Union (E
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Eurovision Song Contest 2024The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 was the 68th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. It consisted of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May and a final on 11 May 2024, held at the Malmö Arena in Malmö, Sweden, and presented by Petra Mede and Malin Åkerman. It was organised by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) and host broadcaster Sveriges Television (SVT), whic
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Eurovision Song Contest 2023The Eurovision Song Contest 2023 was the 67th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. It consisted of two semi-finals on 9 and 11 May and a final on 13 May 2023, held at M&S Bank Arena Liverpool in Liverpool, United Kingdom, and presented by Alesha Dixon, Hannah Waddingham, and Julia Sanina, with Graham Norton joining for the final. It was organised by the E
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Eurovision 2026: Jury Winner plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like PolyGram route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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