How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remained heavily disrupted through mid-May, with the market’s weekly total depending on whether any normal commercial flow resumed between 11 and 17 May. IMF Portwatch’s live shipping data has been the relevant benchmark in past Strait disputes: even brief reopenings have tended to produce only a small number of transits before operators pull back again. That makes the current 28% implied probability of a higher weekly total look consistent with a still-fragile operating environment rather than a full reopening.

Recent reporting suggests the main frame is not whether traffic can return to normal, but whether the choke point can move from near-zero to low-but-measurable activity. CSIS said the waterway was effectively closed from 2 March in the latest standoff, while its vessel-tracking analysis showed only 187 successful transits since 4 March, concentrated among a few shipping nationalities and firms. Reuters and other regional coverage have described continued rerouting by tankers and container lines, with insurers and charterers still treating the corridor as exceptionally risky.

The catalyst to watch is any formal Iranian announcement on access, followed by how quickly shipping firms act on it. In recent weeks the decisive signals have been ship-transit counts rather than statements: if IMF Portwatch shows even a modest lift in daily transits after a declaration, the weekly total can move sharply; if not, the market will price in another very low week. Traders are therefore leaning on Portwatch updates, shipping-company route decisions, and any fresh government or IRGC statement on the status of the strait.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page tracks How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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