# of views of MrBeast video day 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast’s latest long-form upload has to clear its first 96 hours on YouTube, with the market settling off the channel’s public views counter once that window closes. The current 0% implied price points to the view that the video is already locked into a lower bracket, but that is best read as a mechanical market judgement rather than a signal that four-day growth has stopped. For comparison, MrBeast’s launches routinely produce huge first-day numbers and then add materially over the next three days, which is why the 96-hour measure can land a bracket higher than a day-one read would suggest. HypeAuditor’s channel data puts his average video well above 100 million views overall, underlining how quickly his uploads can accumulate once the initial surge has passed.

The main catalyst is simple: how hard the new video has been promoted and whether it has a broad, high-retention concept that keeps surfacing in recommendations after day one. Traders are likely leaning on the upload cadence and early traction rather than any external event, because there is no scheduled declaration or debate-style trigger here, just the normal YouTube distribution curve. Recent reporting from Fortune on March 5 noted Kalshi’s scrutiny of MrBeast-related markets after an insider-trading case involving a video editor, which is relevant mainly as background on how closely these markets can be watched, not as a driver of views. The nearest comparable market on Lines.com for MrBeast’s day-one views was clustered around the 30–35 million range, showing that expectations for his launches can stay elevated even before the full four-day total is known.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for # of views of MrBeast video day 4? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.