"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The film *Young Washington*, a historical epic about America’s first president, is set to open domestically on the 3-day weekend of July 3–5, 2026, timed to the 250th anniversary of the nation’s founding. Early tracking suggests an opening between $23 million and $35 million, with some analysts projecting a total domestic run of up to $145 million, potentially making it one of Angel Studios’ biggest theatrical successes, following *Sound of Freedom* [3]. However, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES indicates traders are betting the film will fail to meet its bracketed opening target, possibly due to competition from *Minions & Monsters* and the quiet indie landscape of the July 4 weekend [2][5].

Historically, July 4 weekends have produced mixed results for non-franchise historical films. *Supergirl*, for instance, collapsed 76% in its second weekend and lost to a George Washington-themed movie, underscoring how quickly audience interest can vanish if the opening isn’t strong [1]. Comparable cases show that without a clear cultural hook or franchise backing, historical dramas often struggle to sustain momentum beyond the opening weekend, especially when competing with major animated releases.

Traders should watch for final box office figures released by The Numbers after July 5, once studio estimates are replaced with confirmed data. Key catalysts include any post-opening weekend press coverage, social media sentiment shifts, and potential delays in final reporting due to the holiday. Recent news from Deadline notes the film’s wide release on 2,700 screens and its alignment with patriotic sentiment, which could influence turnout [2]. The market appears to lean on the finality of the 3-day gross as the decisive factor, with no room for studio estimates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.