Market statistics
- Total volume
- $2.1M
- 24h volume
- $1.2M
- Liquidity
- $11K
- Open interest
- $89K
- Comments
- 51
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (3)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, how
Wikipedia Context
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Jeffrey EpsteinJeffrey Edward Epstein was an American financier and child sex offender. He began his career as a math teacher at the Dalton School, before entering the banking and finance sector. Over several decades, he made much of his fortune providing tax and estate services to billionaires, and cultivated an elite social circle of prominent individuals. In 2008, he wa
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Jeffrey Epstein and internet memesJeffrey Epstein has been the subject of multiple Internet memes and parodies, with a resurgence in late 2025. These memes have been compared to jokes about the September 11 attacks, the Holocaust and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It has also been criticized for "minimizing the suffering of victims."
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Jeffrey Epstein's birthday book
In 2003, friends and associates of American financier Jeffrey Epstein—who would later, in 2008, be convicted of sexual offenses against minors—gave him a three-volume bound album with personalized greetings for his 50th birthday, entitled The First Fifty Years. The album was assembled by Epstein's close friend, Ghislaine Maxwell, with help from assistants. S
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Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy RichJeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich is an American web documentary television miniseries about convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The miniseries is based on the 2016 book of the same name by James Patterson, and co-written by John Connolly and Tim Malloy. Filthy Rich was released on May 27, 2020, on Netflix. The four-part documentary features interviews with s
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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