US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The live market is being driven by the June agreement between Washington and Tehran, which started a 60-day negotiating period but has not yet delivered a completed final instrument. Reuters reported that the draft covers nuclear limits, oil-sanctions relief, asset release and a promise not to impose new sanctions before a final accord, while AP and the BBC both said the initial text was signed or adopted and left the harder issues for later talks.[2][1][3]

That is why the 1% price still reads like an early-stage placeholder rather than a clean signal on closure. The nearest historical comparison is the JCPOA: the 2015 Iran nuclear deal took months of technical bargaining and required Iran to accept intrusive restrictions in return for sanctions relief, showing how often interim frameworks are easier to announce than to finalise.[5] In other words, traders should treat the current probability as leaning on the existence of a working ceasefire-style memorandum, not on evidence that a durable nuclear settlement is already locked in.[5][6]

The main catalysts now are whether the two sides keep the talks on schedule, whether follow-up language is drafted within the 60-day window, and whether any new conditions on inspections, sanctions waivers or asset transfers provoke a stall. Reuters also noted that no new sanctions are to be imposed until a final agreement is reached, which makes any fresh White House or Iranian statement on compliance, sequencing or extensions especially important.[2] Reports over the weekend that a peace-talk meeting was postponed after renewed regional violence point to the key dependency: if the wider security situation worsens, the final deal path becomes harder, not easier.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.