"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The opening weekend is being watched against a softening box-office backdrop rather than a clear breakout pattern. Recent tracking cited by Deadline put the film around $80 million for the four-day Memorial Day frame, with broader industry discussion clustering in the $86 million to $109 million range from Box Office Theory. That leaves the current crowd-implied 74% YES probability more consistent with a mid-range debut than a true blow-out, especially given comparisons in the trade press to lower-performing Disney Star Wars titles such as Solo when measured on a holiday four-day basis.

For traders, the key catalyst is not a new trailer or a studio statement, but the sequence of final daily grosses that The Numbers will publish over the holiday period, which will lock the market’s settlement value once the four-day total is final. Attention should stay on whether family turnout lifts the Friday-to-Monday run above the current tracking band, as Deadline’s reporting suggests that the weekend total is being held up by holiday attendance rather than adult pre-sales alone. Any late shift in audience walk-up, particularly on Saturday and Sunday, is the main dependency that could move the result across adjacent brackets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.