Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
Market context
MrBeast’s latest long-form upload is being judged on how many views it has accumulated by the 120-hour mark. The market is currently leaning towards the top bracket because his launches usually start fast and then taper rather than collapse, with one Polymarket readout already pointing to 59–60 million views as the leading outcome. That fits the broader pattern for his channel: huge opening-day reach, then slower incremental growth as the video is pushed less aggressively by the recommendation system.
Comparable cases suggest the day-five total is mainly about how durable the first spike is, not whether the video stays viral in a headline sense. MrBeast has previously remained one of YouTube’s strongest performers, and third-party trackers such as vidIQ and Social Blade have continued to show extreme scale in both views and subscriber gains. At the same time, recent commentary around his channel has focused on whether long-form views are being diluted across YouTube, with a May 11 Tubefilter roundup still placing a MrBeast branded video at number one, underscoring that his uploads can still dominate even in a softer platform environment.
For traders, the main catalyst is not a schedule item but the rate at which the video keeps compounding before the 120-hour window closes. Watch for any upload follow-up, thumbnail or title changes, and whether MrBeast promotes the video elsewhere, as those can affect the tail. The closer market debate is whether the current pace can hold through day five or whether a visible slowdown pushes the final count into the lower bracket; recent coverage in the Times of India also highlighted public claims about a 50% view decline, which may be shaping expectations, but the resolution will come only from the YouTube counter on the video itself.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for # of views of MrBeast video day 5? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade # of views of MrBeast video day 5? on PolyGram
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