Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods has no known federal criminal convictions that would make him eligible for a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve. Woods was arrested for driving under the influence in May 2017 in Florida, but pleaded no contest to reckless driving—a state-level charge—and completed a diversion programme. A federal pardon applies only to federal crimes, making any such action by Trump extraordinarily unusual absent a federal conviction that does not currently exist in Woods's record.

Presidential pardons for individuals without federal convictions are rare but not unprecedented. President Ford's pardon of Richard Nixon in 1974 set a precedent for preemptive pardons, though Nixon faced potential federal charges. More recently, Trump issued approximately 143 pardons and 36 commutations during his first term, predominantly targeting individuals with federal convictions, political allies, and family members. No sitting president has issued a pardon to a professional athlete solely for a state-level traffic or driving offence, establishing a substantial historical barrier to this outcome.

The market's 1% implied probability reflects the absence of any reported federal charges, public statements from Trump regarding Woods, or credible reporting suggesting pardon discussions between them. Traders should monitor whether Woods faces any federal indictment between now and June 2026, or whether Trump makes unexpected public statements linking himself to Woods. The timeframe extends through Trump's potential second term, but without an underlying federal case, the catalyst for resolution remains entirely speculative. Recent reporting from major news outlets including Reuters and AP has documented Trump's pardon patterns, which show no pattern of addressing state-level driving offences.

Methodology

This page tracks Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

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On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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