Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely moving through the Strait of Hormuz as the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran keeps the waterway effectively closed, with tensions spiking after Washington struck Iranian military sites and Tehran retaliated by targeting a US base. A memorandum of understanding finalized on 17 June guarantees immediate reopening of commercial navigation, yet traffic remains near standstill despite 25 vessels crossing on 18 June, the highest volume since April[3][7]. The market leans heavily on this diplomatic agreement, which requires the US to lift its naval blockade by 19 July in exchange for Iran’s best efforts to restore pre-war traffic levels within the same timeframe[3].

Historically, the strait reopened briefly on 21 April before closing again the next day, showing how fragile temporary ceasefires have been in this crisis[5]. A two-week ceasefire in April also saw a brief re-opening, but confidence quickly eroded as escalations continued[1]. These patterns suggest that the current 59% probability reflects cautious optimism rather than certainty, as past reopenings failed to sustain normal transit calls due to persistent security risks and military activity[1][5].

Traders should watch for the 19 July deadline when the US must fully lift its blockade, a key catalyst for sustained traffic recovery[3]. Recent campaign-finance disclosures and scheduled peace negotiations will also influence whether Iran commits to restoring flows, while maritime intelligence agencies like AXSMarine continue monitoring daily vessel counts[3]. Any delay in lifting the blockade or renewed security incidents could derail the agreement, making the July 31 settlement window highly dependent on diplomatic adherence[3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

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