US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Yes 50%
No 50%
Vol. $68.3M
Politics prediction market · Vol. $3.1M
| May 14 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| June 30 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| May 15 | 77% YES | 24% NO |
| May 16 | 93% YES | 7% NO |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The Polymarket market "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?" is currently trading at 1% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 1%.
These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.
Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Politics markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 14 May 2026 with automatic USDC settlement.
How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.
What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.
Is this legal? Prediction market regulations vary by jurisdiction. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.
Live data from Polymarket · updated hourly