Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the global diplomatic shift toward recognising Palestine, which has intensified since October 2023 and culminated in June 2026 with multiple Western nations formally acknowledging a State of Palestine. This wave includes the UK, Canada, Portugal, and Australia, with six more countries set to follow, creating a political environment where recognising Israel is increasingly unlikely rather than probable[2][3].

Historically, new recognitions of Israel have occurred during periods of diplomatic normalisation, such as the 2020 Abraham Accords that brought UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco, and Bhutan into Israel’s fold, or Kosovo’s 2020 recognition tied to economic agreements with Serbia[4][5]. However, the current trend is the opposite: nations are moving away from Israel and toward Palestine, with 29 countries still refusing to recognise Israel as of 2026, most of them Arab or Muslim states[5][6]. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects this stark reversal in diplomatic momentum.

Traders should watch the UN General Assembly session in September 2026, where further recognitions of Palestine are expected, and any scheduled declarations by France and Saudi Arabia at their upcoming world summit on the two-state solution[2]. The market is leaning heavily on the catalyst of continued Palestinian recognitions, which will further suppress any chance of new countries recognising Israel before the June 30, 2026 settlement window closes. Recent campaign-finance disclosures and polling aggregators show no significant movement toward Israel recognition, reinforcing the current 0% probability[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.