Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The Senate has already passed the underlying budget resolution, but not the reconciliation bill itself. On 23 April it adopted S.Con.Res. 33 by 50–48, starting the reconciliation process for a package centred on immigration enforcement and DHS funding. House passage followed on 29 April, so the procedural groundwork is in place; the remaining question is whether both chambers can agree on the legislative text and get it through the Senate before the 31 May settlement window closes. A 0% implied probability is best read against the fact that the chamber has already cleared one major hurdle, even if final passage is still uncertain.

Comparable reconciliation fights tend to move quickly once committee text is released, but they can also slip if leadership cannot line up the votes or reconcile House-Senate differences. Here, Senate committees released a draft package on 4 May, and the Congressional Budget Office scored the combined recommendations at roughly $72 billion over ten years. That keeps the market tied to a narrow legislative path rather than a broad budget deal: the catalyst is whether GOP leaders can convert committee language into floor action before month-end, not a fresh poll movement.

Traders should watch for any formal floor schedule from Senate leadership, any conference or amendment talks between the chambers, and whether the House accepts the Senate text without changes. Reuters and other reporting have already framed the June 1 target as the practical deadline, with committee work expected to be completed by 15 May. If leadership signals a cloture vote or unanimous consent agreement, odds would rise quickly; if debate is pushed into early June, the bill is likely to miss this market’s deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.