How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

A large quake anywhere on Earth during this seven-day window would be enough to settle the market, and the crowd is already pricing that risk as very high. The current 95% “YES” implies traders expect at least one magnitude 6.5+ event to appear in the USGS record before the settlement cut-off, so the key question is not whether seismicity exists, but whether it clears the threshold on the official catalogue.[1][7][11]

That reading is shaped by recent comparables in 2026: USGS and other global lists show a year with several M6.5+ quakes already, including June events in Mindanao and offshore Honshu, plus a 6.8 in Kyushu on 28 July.[7][8] By contrast, early-August reporting has been quieter at the upper end, with one daily world summary noting no quakes of magnitude 6 or higher over a recent 24-hour period, which helps explain why the market can still sit heavily one-sided despite the underlying tail risk.[6][10] Historical framing therefore matters: a single offshore subduction-zone event can flip the outcome quickly, while a string of smaller quakes does nothing for settlement.

The main catalyst traders should watch is the USGS event feed, especially because the market rules allow late recognition if a substantial quake has occurred but has not yet been added to the resolution source.[9][11] That means the near-term focus is on whether any delayed official entry appears before the window closes, rather than on scheduled announcements or campaign-style calendar events; the relevant dependency is simply USGS confirmation of magnitude and timing.[9][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.