Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup group match between Egypt and IR Iran in Seattle on 27 June 2026 is the real-world event driving the "Exact Score" prediction market, where a 2–2 outcome currently holds a 16% crowd-implied probability. Both nations remain unbeaten after two rounds, with Egypt aiming to top Group G and Iran seeking knockout progression, setting the stage for a high-stakes tactical battle under referee Szymon Marciniak.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages with two unbeaten, defensively resilient teams often cluster around tight draws or low-scoring wins; the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 simulations show a 31.3% chance of a draw and only 24.6% for an Iran win, suggesting a 2–2 result is less probable than the market implies. Comparable cases from 2018 and 2022 World Cups, where unbeaten group rivals met, frequently resolved to 1–1 or 2–1, with exact 2–2 scores occurring in under 10% of such fixtures, framing the current 16% as potentially inflated.

Traders should monitor pre-match team news, particularly any late declarations on starting line-ups or tactical shifts from both coaches, as well as recent campaign-finance disclosures that might signal squad morale or resource allocation. The Opta Analyst’s latest preview notes Egypt as slight favourites with a 61.2% chance of topping the group, while SI.com’s prediction explicitly forecasts 2–2, making this the primary catalyst the market leans on. Watch for updates from BBC Two or FIFA’s official match centre before the 03:00 UTC kick-off, as any shift in defensive readiness could alter the exact-score probability significantly.

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Trump Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Trump Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.