Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
25% | 75% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
25% | 75% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Scottie Scheffler | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Jordan Spieth | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Keith Mitchell | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wyndham Clark | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
The 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson is a PGA Tour event scheduled for May at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. The tournament typically attracts a competitive field of tour members competing for a substantial purse and FedEx Cup points. Settlement occurs on 24 May 2026, giving traders approximately eighteen months to assess player form, injury status, and field composition as the event approaches.
Historical precedent suggests that PGA Tour regular-season events at this venue attract field sizes of 156 players, with roughly 70 making the cut. The 25% implied probability on the listed player reflects moderate confidence in their chances relative to the broader field. Comparable PGA Tour events show that favourites with similar odds typically finish in the top ten to fifteen contenders, though tournament outcomes remain highly dependent on week-to-week performance variance and course-specific strengths. Players with strong ball-striking records and experience at TPC Craig Ranch historically perform better than those lacking familiarity with the layout.
Traders should monitor the player's tournament schedule throughout 2025 and early 2026, particularly their results in comparable events and any announcements regarding injuries or PGA Tour status changes. Recent PGA Tour scheduling announcements and field confirmations typically emerge four to six weeks before each event. Form trajectory in the months immediately preceding May 2026 will prove decisive, as will any changes to the tournament field composition or course conditions that might favour or disadvantage the listed player's particular skillset.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for PGA Tour: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Winner plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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