1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin

Platform comparison

Market context

Mainz 05 will host Union Berlin in a Bundesliga fixture on 10 May 2026, with the settlement window closing at 17:30 UTC that day. The 0% implied probability suggests the market is either awaiting team news or reflects extreme confidence in a particular outcome among early traders.

Historical context for Bundesliga matches shows that pre-match probabilities of 0% typically indicate either missing information or a technical artefact in early market formation. Comparable fixtures between mid-table sides like Mainz and Union Berlin—both regular Bundesliga participants with similar historical performance profiles—typically settle with meaningful probability ranges reflecting form, injuries, and home advantage. Mainz's home record and Union Berlin's away performance in recent seasons would normally anchor expectations around 35–45% for a home win, with draw probabilities substantial given both teams' defensive orientations.

Traders should monitor team news releases and official Bundesliga communications through early May, particularly injury confirmations for key players that could shift match dynamics. Union Berlin's fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season and Mainz's position in the table relative to European qualification or relegation battles may influence squad rotation decisions. Recent form data from Kicker or the official Bundesliga website will clarify whether either side enters the match on winning or losing streaks. The current 0% reading likely reflects insufficient liquidity or pending catalyst resolution rather than genuine market conviction.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.