Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 99% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 99% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 98% |
| O/U 32.5 | 96% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 86% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 84% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 78% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| O/U 34.5 | 72% |
| Alabama O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| O/U 36.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| O/U 42.5 | 57% |
| Alabama vs. LSU | 56% |
| O/U 46.5 | 54% |
| LSU 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Alabama O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| LSU O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| LSU O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| LSU O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| LSU 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| LSU 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Alabama vs. LSU: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Alabama vs. LSU: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Alabama vs. LSU: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LSU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| LSU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LSU Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| LSU Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| LSU Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| LSU Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Alabama vs. LSU: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama vs. LSU: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama vs. LSU: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| LSU O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| O/U 44.5 | 46% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| O/U 48.5 | 38% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -8.5 | 30% |
| O/U 64.5 | 29% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| O/U 70.5 | 28% |
| O/U 50.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| O/U 52.5 | 18% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| LSU O/U 27.5 | 16% |
| O/U 54.5 | 14% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| O/U 56.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| LSU O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| Spread -11.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| O/U 62.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 2% |
| O/U 68.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Alabama 1H O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Alabama 1H O/U 12.5 | 0% |
| Alabama 1H O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| LSU 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| LSU 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| LSU 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Alabama vs. LSU. In the upcoming college football game between Alabama and LSU, scheduled for November 7 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Alabama" if Alabama win the game. This market will resolve to "LSU" i…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.5M.
Methodology
This page tracks Alabama vs. LSU across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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