Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 93% |
| NC State 1H O/U 17.5 | 91% |
| NC State 1H O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| Spread -3.5 | 88% |
| Spread -6.5 | 86% |
| O/U 40.5 | 84% |
| Spread -7.5 | 83% |
| Spread -13.5 | 82% |
| O/U 46.5 | 82% |
| Spread -10.5 | 81% |
| Spread -5.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 79% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 78% |
| O/U 52.5 | 77% |
| O/U 36.5 | 76% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| Spread -11.5 | 75% |
| Spread -12.5 | 75% |
| O/U 42.5 | 74% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 74% |
| O/U 44.5 | 73% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 73% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| NC State O/U 37.5 | 71% |
| Spread -14.5 | 70% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 70% |
| O/U 48.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| Spread -15.5 | 67% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| Spread -17.5 | 65% |
| Spread -18.5 | 65% |
| Spread -19.5 | 65% |
| O/U 50.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 63% |
| Spread -16.5 | 62% |
| NC State O/U 34.5 | 61% |
| Spread -21.5 | 60% |
| Spread -22.5 | 59% |
| O/U 54.5 | 59% |
| Spread -20.5 | 56% |
| Spread -9.5 | 55% |
| Spread -24.5 | 52% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| O/U 58.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| NC State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| O/U 56.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -31.5 | 44% |
| O/U 60.5 | 43% |
| Appalachian State O/U 20.5 | 43% |
| Spread -27.5 | 41% |
| Spread -34.5 | 40% |
| O/U 64.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| Spread -30.5 | 38% |
| O/U 62.5 | 38% |
| O/U 66.5 | 35% |
| O/U 68.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 34% |
| O/U 72.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| O/U 74.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Appalachian State O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| O/U 70.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| Spread -3.5 | 4% |
| Spread -2.5 | 4% |
| Appalachian State vs. NC State | 3% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, appalachian state vs. nc state stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Appalachian State and NC State, scheduled for September 26 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Appalachian State" if Appalachia…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $152K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Appalachian State vs. NC State plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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