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Duke vs. Virginia

"Duke vs. Virginia" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

1Q O/U 7.5 100% 1Q O/U 10.5 100% 1Q O/U 13.5 100% Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 100% Volume: $277K Liquidity: $750K Closes: 23 Oct 2026
Open live market →
Duke vs. Virginia

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1Q O/U 7.5100%
1Q O/U 10.5100%
1Q O/U 13.5100%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1100%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q190%
O/U 35.587%
Spread -0.581%
O/U 37.579%
1H Spread -1.576%
O/U 39.571%
O/U 41.571%
4Q O/U 7.571%
Spread -1.565%
2Q O/U 7.565%
2H Spread -3.565%
Virginia O/U 23.564%
Spread -2.562%
O/U 43.562%
Spread -0.561%
4Q O/U 10.556%
Duke O/U 20.555%
O/U 45.554%
Spread -3.552%
3Q O/U 7.552%
Virginia 2H O/U 14.551%
Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 19.551%
Spread -4.550%
O/U 65.550%
O/U 73.550%
O/U 75.550%
1H O/U 21.550%
1H O/U 24.550%
1H O/U 33.550%
2H O/U 21.550%
2H O/U 24.550%
2H O/U 27.550%
2H O/U 30.550%
2H O/U 33.550%
Duke O/U 32.550%
Virginia O/U 26.550%
Virginia O/U 29.550%
Virginia O/U 32.550%
Virginia O/U 35.550%
Duke 1H O/U 11.550%
Duke 1H O/U 13.550%
Duke 1H O/U 15.550%
Virginia 1H O/U 12.550%
Virginia 1H O/U 14.550%
Virginia 1H O/U 16.550%
Duke 2H O/U 11.550%
Duke 2H O/U 13.550%
Duke 2H O/U 15.550%
Virginia 2H O/U 12.550%
Virginia 2H O/U 16.550%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q350%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q250%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q450%
Duke vs. Virginia: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.550%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q450%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q350%
Pick-Six Scored50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q250%
Game Goes to Overtime50%
Duke vs. Virginia: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.550%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown50%
Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.550%
Duke vs. Virginia: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.550%
Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.550%
Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.550%
Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.550%
Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.550%
Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.550%
Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.550%
Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.550%
Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.550%
Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.550%
Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.550%
Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.550%
Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.550%
Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.550%
Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.550%
Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.550%
Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.550%
Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.550%
Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.550%
Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.550%
Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.550%
Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.550%
Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.550%
Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.550%
Duke 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.550%
Duke 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.550%
Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.550%
Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 0.550%
Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.550%
Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 1.550%
Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 2.550%
Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 0.550%
Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 1.550%
Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 2.550%
Duke Total Receptions: O/U 14.550%
Duke Total Receptions: O/U 19.550%
Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 14.550%
Duke Total Receptions: O/U 24.550%
Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 19.550%
Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 24.550%
Duke Total First Downs: O/U 19.550%
Duke Total First Downs: O/U 23.550%
Duke Total First Downs: O/U 21.550%
Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 21.550%
Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 23.550%
Duke vs. Virginia: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.550%
Duke vs. Virginia: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.550%
Duke vs. Virginia: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.550%
1H Spread -1.550%
1H Spread -0.550%
2H Spread -1.550%
2H Spread -0.550%
2H Spread -1.550%
2H Spread -5.550%
2Q Spread -1.550%
2Q Spread -0.550%
2Q Spread -0.550%
2Q Spread -1.550%
3Q Spread -1.550%
3Q Spread -0.550%
3Q Spread -0.550%
3Q Spread -1.550%
4Q Spread -1.550%
4Q Spread -0.550%
4Q Spread -5.550%
2H Moneyline50%
Duke O/U 2.550%
Virginia O/U 2.550%
1H Moneyline50%
1Q Moneyline50%
2Q Moneyline50%
3Q Moneyline50%
4Q Moneyline50%
O/U 47.549%
1H Spread -3.549%
Spread -5.548%
2Q Spread -3.548%
4Q O/U 13.546%
Spread -6.542%
O/U 49.542%
2Q O/U 10.541%
Duke O/U 23.541%
4Q Spread -1.539%
Spread -7.537%
4Q Spread -2.537%
3Q O/U 10.536%
Duke vs. Virginia34%
3Q Spread -3.534%
Spread -8.533%
O/U 51.533%
3Q O/U 13.531%
O/U 53.530%
4Q O/U 16.530%
4Q Spread -3.530%
Spread -2.529%
Spread -1.529%
Spread -10.528%
3Q Spread -3.526%
O/U 55.524%
Spread -13.523%
Duke O/U 26.523%
Duke O/U 29.523%
1H Spread -0.523%
2H Spread -2.523%
Spread -3.522%
1H O/U 27.521%
2Q O/U 13.521%
4Q O/U 19.521%
Spread -4.519%
Spread -14.518%
O/U 57.518%
O/U 59.518%
1H O/U 30.518%
2Q Spread -3.518%
Spread -5.517%
Spread -16.517%
2Q O/U 16.517%
3Q O/U 16.516%
Spread -6.514%
Spread -17.513%
O/U 61.513%
Spread -7.512%
1H Spread -3.511%
Spread -20.510%
3Q O/U 19.510%
O/U 63.59%
Spread -10.58%
Spread -8.58%
Spread -13.56%
O/U 67.56%
O/U 71.56%
2Q O/U 19.56%
Spread -14.55%
O/U 69.55%
Spread -20.54%
Spread -17.54%
Spread -16.54%
1Q O/U 16.50%
1Q O/U 19.50%
1Q Spread -3.50%
1Q Spread -1.50%
1Q Spread -0.50%
1Q Spread -0.50%
1Q Spread -1.50%
1Q Spread -3.50%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to duke vs. virginia. In the upcoming college football game between Duke and Virginia, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Duke" if Duke win the game. This market will resolve to "Virginia" …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1Q O/U 7.5 at 100% for "Duke vs. Virginia".

1Q O/U 7.5 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $277K.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Duke vs. Virginia plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
Sarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets WriterandJames WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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