Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 18.5 | 94% |
| O/U 20.5 | 92% |
| O/U 22.5 | 92% |
| O/U 24.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| O/U 26.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 79% |
| Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Iowa Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 13.5 | 73% |
| Michigan O/U 16.5 | 72% |
| O/U 32.5 | 70% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 70% |
| Spread -0.5 | 66% |
| O/U 34.5 | 66% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| Iowa O/U 13.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 63% |
| O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 58% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 38.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Iowa O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Iowa O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Iowa O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Iowa O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Iowa Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Iowa 1H O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Michigan 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| O/U 42.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| Iowa O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Michigan O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| 1H Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| O/U 44.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Iowa vs. Michigan | 34% |
| Spread -0.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -11.5 | 30% |
| O/U 46.5 | 30% |
| Spread -12.5 | 29% |
| Spread -13.5 | 27% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| O/U 48.5 | 26% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| Spread -14.5 | 24% |
| O/U 50.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| Spread -19.5 | 15% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 54.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| O/U 52.5 | 13% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -22.5 | 11% |
| Spread -11.5 | 8% |
| Spread -23.5 | 8% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| Spread -14.5 | 7% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for Iowa vs. Michigan. In the upcoming college football game between Iowa and Michigan, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Iowa" if Iowa win the game. This market will resolve to "Michigan…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $245K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Iowa vs. Michigan plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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