Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 27.5 | 91% |
| O/U 29.5 | 89% |
| O/U 31.5 | 81% |
| O/U 33.5 | 79% |
| O/U 35.5 | 72% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion | 70% |
| Spread -0.5 | 69% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| 1H Moneyline | 68% |
| O/U 37.5 | 67% |
| James Madison O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 63% |
| O/U 39.5 | 62% |
| Spread -3.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| Spread -5.5 | 56% |
| O/U 41.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 55% |
| James Madison O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| O/U 43.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Old Dominion O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Old Dominion O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Old Dominion Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Old Dominion: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 26.5 | 49% |
| Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 45% |
| Spread -8.5 | 44% |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| Old Dominion O/U 20.5 | 42% |
| O/U 47.5 | 40% |
| James Madison O/U 29.5 | 37% |
| Spread -11.5 | 36% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 36% |
| Spread -12.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| Old Dominion O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| Spread -0.5 | 30% |
| O/U 51.5 | 30% |
| Spread -14.5 | 29% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| O/U 53.5 | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Spread -19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| O/U 55.5 | 20% |
| Spread -20.5 | 19% |
| O/U 57.5 | 17% |
| O/U 59.5 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| O/U 61.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -23.5 | 9% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Spread -11.5 | 9% |
| O/U 63.5 | 8% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| O/U 67.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to james madison vs. old dominion. In the upcoming college football game between James Madison and Old Dominion, scheduled for September 26 at 6:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "James Madison" if James Madison win the game. This m…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $411K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for James Madison vs. Old Dominion plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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