Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 25.5 | 92% |
| O/U 27.5 | 89% |
| O/U 23.5 | 87% |
| Spread -0.5 | 82% |
| O/U 33.5 | 79% |
| O/U 29.5 | 77% |
| Spread -3.5 | 76% |
| Oklahoma Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Oklahoma Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Georgia Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Georgia Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Georgia Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| O/U 31.5 | 74% |
| O/U 37.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| O/U 35.5 | 71% |
| Spread -6.5 | 69% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 67% |
| Spread -7.5 | 65% |
| O/U 39.5 | 64% |
| Spread -8.5 | 62% |
| Spread -9.5 | 62% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 57% |
| Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Oklahoma 1H O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Spread -11.5 | 55% |
| O/U 43.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Spread -12.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Georgia O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Georgia O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Georgia O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Georgia 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Georgia 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Georgia 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Georgia 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Georgia 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Georgia O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Oklahoma vs. Georgia: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma vs. Georgia: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma vs. Georgia: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Georgia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Georgia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Georgia Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma vs. Georgia: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma vs. Georgia: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma vs. Georgia: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Georgia O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Georgia 1H O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| O/U 45.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -15.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| Spread -16.5 | 42% |
| O/U 47.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 41% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 37% |
| Spread -18.5 | 36% |
| Spread -19.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| O/U 49.5 | 35% |
| Spread -20.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| O/U 51.5 | 30% |
| Spread -21.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 28% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Georgia O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| O/U 53.5 | 27% |
| Oklahoma O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| 1H Moneyline | 25% |
| Spread -22.5 | 24% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| Spread -24.5 | 22% |
| O/U 55.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -27.5 | 18% |
| O/U 57.5 | 18% |
| Oklahoma vs. Georgia | 17% |
| Spread -0.5 | 17% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -28.5 | 14% |
| O/U 59.5 | 14% |
| O/U 61.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| Spread -30.5 | 12% |
| O/U 63.5 | 9% |
| Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| Spread -31.5 | 8% |
| Spread -34.5 | 8% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 92% probability to oklahoma vs. georgia. In the upcoming college football game between Oklahoma and Georgia, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Oklahoma" if Oklahoma win the game. This market will resolve t…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $133K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Oklahoma vs. Georgia plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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