Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 31.5 | 95% |
| O/U 37.5 | 92% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| O/U 43.5 | 80% |
| O/U 29.5 | 79% |
| O/U 33.5 | 79% |
| O/U 35.5 | 79% |
| O/U 39.5 | 78% |
| O/U 41.5 | 76% |
| O/U 49.5 | 75% |
| O/U 45.5 | 72% |
| O/U 47.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 69% |
| O/U 51.5 | 65% |
| TCU O/U 20.5 | 64% |
| UCF O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| UCF O/U 20.5 | 59% |
| O/U 53.5 | 57% |
| O/U 55.5 | 57% |
| TCU vs. UCF | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 56% |
| O/U 57.5 | 51% |
| TCU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 51% |
| TCU Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UCF 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UCF 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| TCU O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| UCF O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| TCU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCF 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| TCU Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCF Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCF Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| TCU Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UCF Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| TCU vs. UCF: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| TCU O/U 26.5 | 46% |
| Spread -6.5 | 45% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| O/U 63.5 | 38% |
| O/U 61.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| O/U 65.5 | 35% |
| Spread -12.5 | 34% |
| Spread -9.5 | 31% |
| O/U 69.5 | 31% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -11.5 | 27% |
| Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 67.5 | 26% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
Market context
TCU vs. UCF — current market-implied probability: 95%. In the upcoming college football game between TCU and UCF, scheduled for September 26 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "TCU" if TCU win the game. This market will resolve to "UCF" if UCF win …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $446K.
Methodology
This page tracks TCU vs. UCF across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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