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UMass vs. Toledo

How the prediction markets are pricing "UMass vs. Toledo" right now — live Polymarket order book quote, plus platform comparison.

Spread -0.5 100% Spread -1.5 100% Spread -2.5 100% Spread -3.5 100% Volume: $518K Closes: 12 Nov 2026
Open live market →
UMass vs. Toledo

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Spread -0.5100%
Spread -1.5100%
Spread -2.5100%
Spread -3.5100%
Spread -4.5100%
Spread -5.5100%
Spread -6.5100%
Spread -7.5100%
Spread -8.5100%
Spread -10.5100%
Spread -13.5100%
Spread -14.5100%
Spread -16.5100%
Spread -17.5100%
Spread -20.5100%
1H O/U 21.5100%
2Q O/U 7.5100%
2Q O/U 10.5100%
2Q O/U 13.5100%
2Q O/U 16.5100%
Toledo O/U 23.5100%
Toledo 1H O/U 12.5100%
Toledo 1H O/U 14.5100%
Toledo 1H O/U 16.5100%
Pick-Six Scored100%
Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5100%
Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5100%
Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5100%
Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5100%
Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5100%
Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5100%
Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5100%
Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5100%
UMass vs. Toledo: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5100%
UMass vs. Toledo: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5100%
Spread -9.5100%
Spread -11.5100%
Spread -12.5100%
Spread -15.5100%
Spread -18.5100%
Spread -19.5100%
Spread -21.5100%
Spread -22.5100%
2H Moneyline50%
3Q Moneyline50%
4Q Moneyline50%
UMass vs. Toledo0%
Spread -20.50%
Spread -17.50%
Spread -16.50%
Spread -14.50%
Spread -13.50%
Spread -10.50%
Spread -8.50%
Spread -7.50%
Spread -6.50%
Spread -5.50%
Spread -4.50%
Spread -3.50%
Spread -2.50%
Spread -1.50%
Spread -0.50%
O/U 35.50%
O/U 37.50%
O/U 39.50%
O/U 41.50%
O/U 43.50%
O/U 45.50%
O/U 47.50%
O/U 49.50%
O/U 51.50%
O/U 53.50%
O/U 55.50%
O/U 57.50%
O/U 59.50%
O/U 61.50%
O/U 63.50%
O/U 65.50%
O/U 67.50%
O/U 69.50%
O/U 71.50%
O/U 73.50%
O/U 75.50%
1H O/U 24.50%
1H O/U 27.50%
1H O/U 30.50%
1H O/U 33.50%
2H O/U 21.50%
2H O/U 24.50%
2H O/U 27.50%
2H O/U 30.50%
2H O/U 33.50%
1Q O/U 7.50%
1Q O/U 10.50%
1Q O/U 13.50%
1Q O/U 16.50%
1Q O/U 19.50%
2Q O/U 19.50%
3Q O/U 7.50%
3Q O/U 10.50%
3Q O/U 13.50%
3Q O/U 16.50%
3Q O/U 19.50%
4Q O/U 7.50%
4Q O/U 10.50%
4Q O/U 13.50%
4Q O/U 16.50%
4Q O/U 19.50%
UMass O/U 20.50%
UMass O/U 23.50%
UMass O/U 26.50%
UMass O/U 29.50%
UMass O/U 32.50%
Toledo O/U 26.50%
Toledo O/U 29.50%
Toledo O/U 32.50%
Toledo O/U 35.50%
UMass 1H O/U 11.50%
UMass 1H O/U 13.50%
UMass 1H O/U 15.50%
UMass 2H O/U 11.50%
UMass 2H O/U 13.50%
UMass 2H O/U 15.50%
Toledo 2H O/U 12.50%
Toledo 2H O/U 14.50%
Toledo 2H O/U 16.50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H0%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H0%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown0%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q30%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q20%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q40%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q10%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q10%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q20%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q30%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q40%
Game Goes to Overtime0%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown0%
UMass vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.50%
UMass vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.50%
UMass vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.50%
UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.50%
UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.50%
UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.50%
Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.50%
UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.50%
Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.50%
UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.50%
UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.50%
Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.50%
Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.50%
Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.50%
UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.50%
UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.50%
UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.50%
UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.50%
UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.50%
UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.50%
UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.50%
UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.50%
Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.50%
Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.50%
UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 0.50%
UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 1.50%
UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 2.50%
Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 1.50%
Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 2.50%
UMass Total Receptions: O/U 14.50%
UMass Total Receptions: O/U 19.50%
UMass Total Receptions: O/U 24.50%
Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 14.50%
Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 19.50%
Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 24.50%
UMass Total First Downs: O/U 19.50%
UMass Total First Downs: O/U 21.50%
UMass Total First Downs: O/U 23.50%
Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 19.50%
Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 21.50%
Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 23.50%
UMass vs. Toledo: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.50%
Spread -24.50%
Spread -27.50%
Spread -28.50%
Spread -30.50%
Spread -31.50%
Spread -34.50%
1H Moneyline0%
1Q Moneyline0%
2Q Moneyline0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, umass vs. toledo stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between UMass and Toledo, originally scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to t…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Spread -0.5 at 100% for "UMass vs. Toledo".

Spread -0.5 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $518K.

Methodology

This page tracks UMass vs. Toledo across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
Sarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets WriterandJames WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market Analyst

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