Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
TheMongolz, the Mongolian roster, face Spirit, the Russian-Belarusian organisation, in a Counter-Strike 2 best-of-three match at PGL Astana during the group stage phase. The fixture is scheduled for 10 May at 04:00 ET, with settlement closing at 14:40 UTC the same day. The 18% implied probability favours Spirit substantially, reflecting their higher ranking and recent tournament performance.
Spirit have consistently ranked amongst the world's top five teams throughout 2024 and into 2025, with multiple deep playoff runs at tier-one events including ESL Pro League and Intel Extreme Masters. TheMongolz, whilst competitive regionally and capable of upset performances, have not achieved comparable consistency at the highest level. Historical matchups between established top-five rosters and mid-tier challengers in group-stage formats typically resolve in favour of the higher-seeded team roughly 75–85% of the time, which aligns with the current market pricing.
Traders should monitor Spirit's recent form and player availability in the days preceding 10 May, particularly any roster changes or injury reports that might affect their preparation. PGL's official schedule and any format clarifications regarding tiebreaker procedures could shift expectations if group advancement dynamics change. The early morning ET start time may also influence viewership and confidence levels amongst traders, though this rarely affects match outcomes materially. No major roster announcements or sponsorship changes have been reported for either team recently, leaving the market dependent primarily on standard competitive assessment.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Ast… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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