Market statistics
- Total volume
- $608K
- 24h volume
- $608K
- Liquidity
- $244K
- Open interest
- $27K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (77)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Nigma Galaxy and PlayTime in the DreamLeague Group B, initially scheduled for May 14 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against PlayTime. This market will resolve to "PlayTime" if PlayTime win the match against Nigma Galaxy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-
Wikipedia Context
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AnimaniacsAnimaniacs is an American animated comedy television series created by animator Tom Ruegger and produced by Amblin Entertainment and Warner Bros. Television Animation. It originally aired on Fox's Fox Kids block in 1993 before moving to The WB in 1995 as part of its Kids' WB afternoon programming block until the series ended on November 14, 1998. It initiall
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Do Animals Have Rights?Do Animals Have Rights? is a 2005 non-fiction book on animal rights by British philosopher Alison Hills from the University of Bristol. The book explores the ethics of factory farming, animal experimentation and other issues involving animals from a philosophical analysis.
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DogThe dog is a domesticated descendant of wolves. Also called the domestic dog, it was selectively bred during the Late Pleistocene by hunter-gatherers. Dogs and the modern gray wolf share a common ancestor. Dogs were the first species to be domesticated over 14,000 years ago, before the development of agriculture, though genetic studies suggest the domesticat
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Do Animals Believe in God?Do Animals Believe in God? is the sole studio album by English post-punk band Pink Military, released in 1980 by record label Eric's. "Did You See Her?" was re-recorded for the album. Another version had previously been released as a single. The sleeve was designed by Bob Wakelin of Modern Eon.
Methodology
This page tracks Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like PolyGram provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like PolyGram route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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