Market statistics
- Total volume
- $822K
- 24h volume
- $822K
- Liquidity
- $4.8M
- Open interest
- $233K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Available prediction outcomes (62)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Vici Gaming and Virtus.pro in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 14 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vici Gaming" if Vici Gaming win the match against Virtus.pro. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Vici Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to
Wikipedia Context
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Dota 2Dota 2 is a 2013 multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) video game by Valve. The game is a sequel to Defense of the Ancients (DotA), a community-created mod for Blizzard Entertainment's Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos. Dota 2 is played in matches between two teams of five players, with each team occupying and defending their own separate base on the map. Each o
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Don VicicDonald Joseph Vicic is an American former professional football player who played for the BC Lions. He won the Grey Cup with them in 1964. He played college football at Ohio State University. He was later an investment advisor and founded Brown & Vicic Limited. He is currently a vice-president and consultant to RBC Dominion Securities.
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DotarizineDotarizine is a drug used in the treatment of migraine, which acts as a calcium channel blocker, and also as an antagonist at the 5HT2A receptor, and to a lesser extent at the 5HT1A and 5HT2C receptors. The anti-migraine action is thought to be due to its action as a vasodilator, but it also has some anxiolytic effects and blocks amnesia produced by electroc
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DoravirineDoravirine, sold under the brand name Pifeltro, is a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor medication developed by Merck & Co. for use in the treatment of HIV/AIDS.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2earth. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
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