Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
86% | 14% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
86% | 14% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Corners: O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina Corners: O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 79% |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 78% |
| United States Corners: O/U 4.5 | 74% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| Team to Take First Corner | 69% |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 66% |
| United States Corners: O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina Corners: O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 60% |
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 50% |
| United States Corners: O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina Corners: O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina Corners: O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Total Corners: O/U 12.5 | 22% |
Market context
The United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Total Corners prediction market currently prices this outcome at 86% YES. Total corners markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Total Corners plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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