Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Liam Broady’s meeting with August Holmgren is a Wimbledon qualifying match on grass, and the market’s current **100% YES** price is only meaningful if the contest is still live or officially pending rather than already settled. The scheduled timing has shifted across listings: Wimbledon’s own schedule page shows the pair in the qualifying draw, while sportsbook and score providers place the match on 22 June with different start times, which is the kind of scheduling uncertainty that often pushes near-term tennis markets to extremes before an official result is posted.[2][3][5][6]

The historical frame is straightforward: these two have already met on the ATP Tour, with Broady beating Holmgren in Busan in 2026, but grass qualifying is a different context and head-to-heads are only a loose guide.[4] More relevant for pricing is the market’s own settlement rule set, which treats a pre-start cancellation, walkover or delay beyond seven days as a 50-50 outcome, so a 100% read implies traders are leaning hard on the expectation that the match has either been completed or will be officially advanced by routine tournament administration rather than abandoned.[1]

The main catalyst to watch is the Wimbledon order of play and any qualifying draw update or walkover notice from the tournament, because those are the documents that determine whether the market resolves to one player, the other, or reverts to 50-50.[2] If live scoring feeds show the match as started, completion matters less than who advances; if it never began, then any withdrawal, cancellation or administrative postponement becomes the decisive factor.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Trump Prediction routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Trump Prediction?

Zero. Trump Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Trump Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.