Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Raphael Collignon is scheduled to play Casper Ruud in the Geneva Open, a late-clay-court meeting that sits on the eve of Roland Garros. The market’s 0% implied probability for Collignon reflects the usual shape of ATP 250 draws, where a lower-ranked player can be competitive but still starts as a clear outsider against a seeded, higher-profile opponent. Geneva has already produced upsets this week, including Alex Popyrin beating Taylor Fritz in the first round, but those results have been treated as reminders that early-round clay matches can be volatile rather than as evidence that the bottom half of the draw is shifting materially.

For context, traders should lean most heavily on whether Ruud is confirmed to take the court and how the draw has been affected by withdrawals, since these markets often turn on late fitness news more than on broad form lines. ESPN’s live scoreboard had the Collignon-Ruud match listed for 20 May, while ATP Tour and the official Geneva Open site were the best sources for start-time changes and any scheduling slippage. If the match is moved, interrupted, or not completed, the resolution rules matter as much as the result, because the market can still settle 50-50 if play does not produce a winner within the settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.