Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
Market context
Toby Samuel and Gonzalo Bueno are due to meet in Roland Garros qualifying, with the market currently pricing Samuel at 0% YES and therefore treating the result as heavily skewed towards Bueno or at least unresolved. On the evidence available, the matchup looks closer than that implied probability suggests: both players came through qualifying with two wins, Samuel beat Martin Damm in a tight opening set and then outlasted David Goffin, while Bueno beat Florent Bax and Vitaliy Sachko in straight sets. TennisRatio also lists a prior professional meeting in October 2025, won by Bueno 1-0 in the head-to-head.
For traders, the main catalyst is simple: whether the scheduled match is played on time and who advances. FanDuel and other tennis books were already posting match, set and handicap lines, which indicates the fixture is live and expected to be completed within the settlement window unless rain or scheduling disruption intervenes. Flashscore currently lists the match for 22 May, and the ATP head-to-head page confirms the pairing, so the market will likely move only once official play starts or if there is a delay substantial enough to force a void-style 50-50 resolution.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Gonzalo Bueno plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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