Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
14% | 86% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
14% | 86% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Completed Match | 65% YES | 36% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils Set 1 Winner | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils Match O/U 38.5 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 63% YES | 37% NO |
Market context
This market refers to the tennis match between Stan Wawrinka and Arthur Fils in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stan Wawrinka' if Stan Wawrinka advances against Arthur Fils. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Stan Wawrinka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will res
Methodology
This page tracks Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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