Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Market context
This market refers to the tennis match between Stan Wawrinka and Alex Michelsen in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stan Wawrinka' if Stan Wawrinka advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Stan Wawrinka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market wi
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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