Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 92% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 91% |
| Spread -3.5 | 86% |
| Spread -5.5 | 86% |
| O/U 35.5 | 85% |
| Spread -6.5 | 79% |
| Spread -11.5 | 79% |
| O/U 33.5 | 78% |
| O/U 41.5 | 77% |
| Spread -9.5 | 76% |
| O/U 31.5 | 76% |
| O/U 37.5 | 75% |
| Spread -16.5 | 74% |
| O/U 39.5 | 74% |
| O/U 43.5 | 71% |
| Spread -19.5 | 69% |
| Spread -13.5 | 68% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 68% |
| O/U 49.5 | 66% |
| Spread -14.5 | 65% |
| O/U 45.5 | 65% |
| Spread -15.5 | 64% |
| Spread -18.5 | 64% |
| O/U 47.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 64% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| Delaware O/U 13.5 | 63% |
| Spread -20.5 | 61% |
| Spread -23.5 | 61% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Spread -17.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| Spread -22.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Spread -21.5 | 52% |
| Spread -12.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -40.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Delaware O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Delaware O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Delaware 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Delaware 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Delaware 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Delaware 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Delaware 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Delaware 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Delaware O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Delaware vs. Virginia: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Delaware vs. Virginia: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Delaware vs. Virginia: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Delaware 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Delaware 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Delaware Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Delaware vs. Virginia: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Delaware vs. Virginia: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Delaware vs. Virginia: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| O/U 51.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| Spread -24.5 | 46% |
| Spread -25.5 | 46% |
| Spread -26.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| O/U 53.5 | 43% |
| O/U 55.5 | 42% |
| Spread -28.5 | 41% |
| Delaware O/U 16.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| O/U 61.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| Spread -27.5 | 36% |
| Spread -30.5 | 35% |
| O/U 63.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 35% |
| Delaware O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Spread -34.5 | 34% |
| Virginia O/U 41.5 | 34% |
| Spread -36.5 | 33% |
| Spread -37.5 | 33% |
| O/U 57.5 | 33% |
| Spread -33.5 | 32% |
| O/U 67.5 | 32% |
| O/U 69.5 | 32% |
| O/U 59.5 | 27% |
| O/U 65.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 18.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 8% |
| Delaware vs. Virginia | 5% |
| O/U 71.5 | 5% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Delaware vs. Virginia. In the upcoming college football game between Delaware and Virginia, scheduled for September 26 at 6:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Delaware" if Delaware win the game. This market will resolve …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $146K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Delaware vs. Virginia plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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