Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 91% |
| O/U 37.5 | 87% |
| O/U 39.5 | 86% |
| NC State O/U 20.5 | 85% |
| O/U 41.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| NC State O/U 23.5 | 78% |
| O/U 43.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| NC State vs. Stanford | 73% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| Spread -0.5 | 72% |
| Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| O/U 47.5 | 69% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 69% |
| 1H Moneyline | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 66% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 64% |
| Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| O/U 49.5 | 63% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Spread -5.5 | 60% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| O/U 51.5 | 57% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| NC State O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Stanford O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| NC State O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| NC State vs. Stanford: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| NC State vs. Stanford: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State vs. Stanford: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| NC State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stanford 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| NC State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| NC State vs. Stanford: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stanford Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| NC State vs. Stanford: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State vs. Stanford: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Stanford O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| NC State O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| NC State O/U 32.5 | 47% |
| Stanford O/U 32.5 | 47% |
| Stanford O/U 35.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| O/U 57.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Spread -10.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| O/U 59.5 | 38% |
| Stanford O/U 26.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| O/U 61.5 | 34% |
| Spread -14.5 | 33% |
| Spread -16.5 | 31% |
| Spread -17.5 | 28% |
| Spread -0.5 | 28% |
| O/U 63.5 | 28% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| Stanford O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| O/U 65.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -20.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| O/U 67.5 | 22% |
| Spread -16.5 | 21% |
| O/U 69.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| Spread -5.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| O/U 71.5 | 16% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| O/U 73.5 | 10% |
| O/U 75.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
Market context
NC State vs. Stanford. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 73% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-24T02:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $120K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for NC State vs. Stanford plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Trump Prediction route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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