Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Trump Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -1.5 | 88% |
| Spread -4.5 | 83% |
| O/U 29.5 | 82% |
| Spread -5.5 | 81% |
| Spread -7.5 | 76% |
| O/U 31.5 | 76% |
| O/U 33.5 | 71% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 71% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 68% |
| Spread -8.5 | 67% |
| Spread -11.5 | 64% |
| O/U 35.5 | 62% |
| O/U 37.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 62% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| Spread -13.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 59% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 20.5 | 58% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| Spread -14.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| O/U 39.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Indiana Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 49% |
| Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| O/U 41.5 | 46% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Northwestern O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Spread -19.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Spread -18.5 | 39% |
| O/U 43.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| Spread -20.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| Spread -21.5 | 35% |
| O/U 45.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Spread -22.5 | 31% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Northwestern O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Spread -23.5 | 29% |
| O/U 47.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| Indiana O/U 34.5 | 28% |
| Spread -24.5 | 27% |
| O/U 49.5 | 27% |
| Spread -25.5 | 26% |
| Spread -26.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| O/U 51.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Northwestern O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Spread -27.5 | 20% |
| Spread -29.5 | 18% |
| Indiana O/U 37.5 | 17% |
| Spread -28.5 | 16% |
| Spread -30.5 | 16% |
| O/U 53.5 | 16% |
| O/U 55.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| Spread -32.5 | 13% |
| O/U 57.5 | 11% |
| O/U 59.5 | 11% |
| O/U 61.5 | 11% |
| Spread -35.5 | 10% |
| Spread -39.5 | 10% |
| Northwestern vs. Indiana | 9% |
| Spread -36.5 | 9% |
| O/U 63.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| Spread -38.5 | 8% |
| Spread -42.5 | 8% |
| O/U 67.5 | 8% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 6% |
| O/U 69.5 | 3% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 3% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 3% |
Market context
Northwestern vs. Indiana. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 9% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $658K.
Methodology
This page tracks Northwestern vs. Indiana across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Trump Prediction provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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